The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.
These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.
CUMBERLAND ADVISORS' WEEKLY RECAP
As part of Cumberland Advisors' continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week's short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.
-Strong week across the board
-Nice bid internationally
-Emerging and developed markets doubled the S&P & Qs here
-Market ignored politics from a price standpoint this week
-Extreme politics can undermine confidence in markets. We're not seeing that yet.
-Let's keep our eyes on interest rates
-The rise in interest rates this week changing some risk/reward dynamics
John Mousseau & Fixed Income / Munis
-Georgia Senators now Democrat
-What did turmoil this week mean to the bond market?
-Blue wave underlining an expectation of spending/stimulus
-10yr bond yield up 18 ticks, 30yr nond yield up 23 ticks
-Yield Curve has become steeper
-Inflation expectations are picking up. Expectations in the bond markets is just as important as outright inflation itself.
-Muni Bond yields? Not much of an uptick. They continue to be in demand with expectations of tax rates going up in the future.
-Muni Bond supply expected to increase, maybe a flood of supply this late winter, early spring.
-We're fairly defensively positioned right now and we're looking to take advantage of an increase new issuance.
-Municipal Credit looks good going forward and an expectation of an infrastructure program under a Biden government
-We're watching the CPI closely
-Have a good weekend after this tumultuous week
-I'd appreciate it if you'd read my commentary if you haven't already, The Blue Wave and the Bond Markets, which you can find here:
https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-the-blue-wave-and-the-bond-markets/
-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors
-Link to Matt's Email: [email protected]
-Link to Matt's Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013Other questions or comments? Email us at [email protected] or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.
Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/
In the News...
Recovery hopes help markets start with a pop
Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 01/07/2021 
read more 
Democracy is under attack. And Wall Street is sounding the alarm
Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 01/06/2021 read more
Muni market unperturbed amid mob violence in U.S. Capitol
Quoted: John R. Mousseau | Posted on: 01/06/2021 read more
David Kotok on the Markets (Bloomberg Radio)
Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 01/05/2021 read more
Munis flat as traders look ahead to next year’s supply slate
Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA | Posted on: 01/01/2021 read more
The stock market is ending 2020 at record highs, even as the virus surges and millions go hungry
Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 01/01/2021 read more
Population Growth Is Slowing. Why That’s a Problem for the U.S. Economy
Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA | Posted on: 01/01/2021 read more
A message from David R. Kotok
Frontline Nurses: The USF Program & Why To Do It
Now, there’s a new USF (University of South Florida) program for nurses, “Frontline Nursing During COVID-19: A New Paradigm,” is coming online. It includes four webinars and focuses on helping nurses, who dedicate their careers to caring for others, to take care of themselves in the midst of and beyond the crisis.
The program is free for any nurse anywhere in the world and especially in the United States. It was developed by the USF College of Nursing. It will give nurses continuing education credits, and it will do so at zero cost to the nurses who sign up.
Here’s the program link and the details: https://health.usf.edu/nursing/frontline-nursing
Please share the link and spread the word about this program. We want to protect our nurses. We want them alive and healthy. The ancient words apply: “If you save a single life, it is as if you have saved the entire world.” Join me, and let’s try to save nurses’ lives and patients’ lives, too.
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.
Read current and past commentaries here: https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/
The Blue Wave and the Bond Markets
Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: January 8, 2021
The Democrat Party won both Senate seats in Georgia on Tuesday, January 5th. Our own math had a split decision, with each party capturing a Senate seat; but with the sweep the Democrats will now control the White House, the House of Representatives, and the Senate, where a 50-50 split will now be broken by […]
Census Update
Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: January 7, 2021
According to the Brookings Institution, “Newly released Census Bureau population estimates through mid-year 2020 reveal record lows in U.S. population growth, both annually and for the 2010-to-2020 decade…. “The new estimates indicate that over the period from July 1, 2019 to July 1, 2020, the nation grew by just 0.35%. This is the lowest annual […]
Breakeven Inflation
Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: January 6, 2021
In a recent review of fixed-income security returns, Cumberland Chairman, David Kotok, raised a question concerning what looked to him to be an anomaly with respect to the spread between the 5-year and 10-year breakeven inflation rates on US Treasures, which had narrowed to only 5 basis points. Both market-based measures of inflation expectations, calculated […]
Attack on the Fed, Market Reaction: A One-Day Saga
Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: January 5, 2021
Dear readers, we narrowly avoided a catastrophe. I use that word because an action by Congress to eliminate or neuter the power of the central bank to intervene as lender of last resort in a crisis is exactly the way to create a catastrophe. The 1929–1933 period of American history is evidence of how a […]
Politics: Aaarrgh!
Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 30, 2020
About 20 million people in America were at sharply increased financial risk if Trump hadn’t signed the new stimulus bill. I asked Mike Englund of Action Economics for a breakdown. Here’s what he sent. “This is taken straight from the initial claims report from the DOL: Unemployment Insurance Benefits in All Programs Week ending December […]
Taxable Total Return 4th Quarter Review
Author: Daniel Himelberger, Post Date: December 29, 2020
The buildup to and launch of a COVID-19 vaccine during the fourth quarter of 2020 led to record highs being set in the stock market and a steeper Treasury yield curve. The news of the vaccine also benefits spreads on investment-grade corporates and taxable municipals. These spreads continue to grind lower from their highs earlier […]
The Long Strange Trip of the Muni Market in 2020
Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: December 28, 2020
Sometimes the light’s all shinin’ on me Other times I can barely see Lately it occurs to me What a long strange trip it’s been “Truckin,” by the Grateful Dead (Lyrics by Robert Hunter) Those great lines from a great song sum up the 2020 investment year in general and particularly in munis, as […]
Ave Maria & More
Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 27, 2020
We hope that you’ve made the most of your holidays during this extraordinary year and have found safe ways to connect with family and friends. On this Sunday poised just before the new year, we would like to wish you and yours a better and brighter 2021. We are hopeful although, we know that we […]
International Equities at Year-end 2020 & the Promise Ahead
Author: Bill Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: December 23, 2020
During March and April of this year, the global economy and equity markets were hit with a severe shock from the COVID-19 pandemic and the widespread lockdown measures governments imposed in response. In May and June, the spread of infection lessened in many economies, lockdowns were largely ended, and restrictions eased. Equity markets started a […]
CIO Overview – 2021 Market & Macro Outlook
Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 21, 2020
“Now what?” we are asked after a 2020 that saw a full-year market whipsaw round trip, coupled with a COVID-induced economic deep dive in the spring. The V-shaped recovery that followed is starting to falter. Let’s take a look in this 2021 market & macro outlook. Jim Bianco has given us permission to use a […]
Cumberland Advisors is an Annual Supporter of
the Global Interdependence Center
The Global Interdependence Center is delighted to partner with Yeshiva University for their first Executive Briefing of 2021. Join them on January 14 at 4PM (ET) for their Macroeconomic Outlook.
There is no cost to register: https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/4721950953747038992
Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.
Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.
