The year started off calmly, although the Ukraine invasion and other escalating conflicts, plus the knock-on risks of supply chain issues, have not abated.

The Kansas City Fed published a worthwhile research note on March 31. Hat tip to Torsten Slok for calling it out.

“Across the lifespan, and across every demographic group, Americans die at younger ages than their counterparts in other wealthy nations.”

Treasury yields continued to be extremely volatile during the first quarter as banking issues sent shockwaves through the market, signaling a slowdown in the Fed’s hiking cycle. The net result of interest rate movements during the first quarter was lower yields across most of the curve.

On July 21, 2011, we penned a commentary titled “Can the Fed Make a Profit for the Taxpayer?” (https://www.cumber.com/market-commentary/can-fed-make-profit-taxpayer July 21, 2011).

The bond market saw the US Treasury close the quarter with unprecedented volatility, spurred by the banking crises that began on March 9th, which saw the FDIC take over both Silicon Valley Bank and the Signature Bank of New York.

Summary

The global economy is in a moderate slowdown, with financial markets being whipsawed by tensions in the banking sectors of the US and Europe in the final weeks of the quarter.

For 50 years of Cumberland’s history, we have been dealing with the subject of the nation’s debt. Our country has been in debt all its constitutional existence. Prior to the constitutional period the fledgling United States experienced its first hyperinflation with the continental dollar then…

The FOMC raised its federal funds target rate for the ninth time, to 4.75–5.0%, continuing its pattern of tightening policy rates in 25-basis-point increments. It also maintained its current policy of gradually reducing its holdings of Treasury and agency securities.