Geopolitical risks, inflation, and recession risks continued into the end of the year, highlighted by announcements of major layoffs at tech and finance companies. Supply chain disruptions eased some, and demand for services increased while consumption of goods declined.

Happy Martin Luther King, Jr. Day. In the video link below, we revisit a 1983 news clip on this 40th anniversary date of the holiday, first signed into law by Republican President, Ronald Reagan.

We’re watching an issue which doesn’t seem to make the stock market’s radar screen, nor the bond market’s credit risk analysis. Repeated incidents seem to be treated as separate “one-offs.” That said, the issue runs the risk of creating a major dislocation; it impacts the utility sector and the…

In last week’s discussion, we looked at last year’s performance of the US housing market and the forces that shaped that performance.

In a recent Wall Street Journal commentary (“Crypto Is Money Without a Purpose,” Dec. 19, 2022), Todd H. Baker argues that crypto activities mimic finance but are really only gambling in disguise.

At the end of the movie The Mule, there is a theme song entitled “Don’t Let the Old Man In,” written and sung by Toby Keith.

“It’s never over till it’s over.”

Whether viewed by home sales (demand) or housing starts (supply), the US housing market downshifted significantly during 2022.

We thank Javier Corominas for permission to use an excellent chart from the Global Strategy team at Oxford Economics.

We’re planning on writing some longer-range observations this year as we celebrate 50 years of Cumberland Advisors. That’s right. It’s 2023, and it is Cumberland’s jubilee year!