The evidence indicates that the Fed’s rate hikes are having the desired effects. Not only is the economy slowing gradually, having declined from an annualized increase of 3.2% in Q3 2022 to 2.9% in Q4 2022, but inflation as measured by the PCE has also declined from 5.5% year-over- year in…

International institutions, including the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the OECD, have all warned of a downturn in the global economy commencing in the fourth quarter of last year and continuing in the early months of 2023.

This is a brief overview of Cumberland Advisors’ thoughts on financial markets as we head into 2023.  We are coming off a rough 2022, one of the rare years with double digit declines in stocks as well as fairly negative returns in bonds.

During 50 years of Cumberland’s history, we have observed many types of inflation cycles and witnessed various responses by the Federal Reserve and the federal government. We’ve seen attempts at “jawboning.” Those didn’t work. Cheerleading — the WIN button (Whip Inflation Now). That didn’t work…

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review

Last year’s Russian invasion of Ukraine triggered a quickly organized and virtual conference series titled Ukraine: What’s Next? In 2023, we’ve had time to organize an extraordinary lineup for a four-part blockbuster series of presentations offered worldwide virtually and in-person in…

Geopolitical risks, inflation, and recession risks continued into the end of the year, highlighted by announcements of major layoffs at tech and finance companies. Supply chain disruptions eased some, and demand for services increased while consumption of goods declined.

Happy Martin Luther King, Jr. Day. In the video link below, we revisit a 1983 news clip on this 40th anniversary date of the holiday, first signed into law by Republican President, Ronald Reagan.

We’re watching an issue which doesn’t seem to make the stock market’s radar screen, nor the bond market’s credit risk analysis. Repeated incidents seem to be treated as separate “one-offs.” That said, the issue runs the risk of creating a major dislocation; it impacts the utility sector and the…

In last week’s discussion, we looked at last year’s performance of the US housing market and the forces that shaped that performance.