US Stock Market: Point and Counterpoint

I hope you can come to the Climate Adaptation Center (CAC) Florida Climate Forecast Conference at the University of South Florida’s Selby Auditorium on November 19.   Please forward this message and link to anyone who might be interested. https://www.theclimateadaptationcenter.org…

Once again, the BLS CES jobs report failed to meet expectations, with nonfarm employment increasing only 194,000, continuing a steady decline from July’s increase of 1,091,000 jobs and August’s increase of only 366,000. To be sure, the unemployment rate declined from 5.2% to 4.8%, but there are…

The inflation hawks cite numerous price indices or monetary policy or rising wages to argue their case. The counterpoint is usually that all this inflation is a result of COVID shock effects, and therefore it is “transitory.” Some argue that the deflationary forces which persisted for years will…

As we finish the third quarter and round the turn for home in 2021, we are seeing a muni market which has shown remarkable resilience, with demand ongoing throughout the year and yield ratios to Treasuries remaining low as the market continues to expect a hike in the personal income tax rates,…

“Congress is at an all-too-familiar stalemate over raising the federal debt ceiling, worrying bankers and others that the financial markets could take a hit if lawmakers fail to reach a deal in advance of an October deadline.” (“Why debt limit standoff could be worrisome for banks,” https://www.…

The history of pandemics contains no exceptions: Crime and fraud flourish; governments deteriorate; corrupt behavior (lies and deception) abound; law and order are pressured by growth in societal instability. We now see the evidence worldwide, including in the United States.

The Treasury curve continued to flatten during the third quarter of 2021, with short-term Treasury yields rising while longer Treasury yields declined. The largest increase in yield is seen in the 5-year, which is up 10.4 bps to 0.995% as of 9/29/21. The biggest decline in yield is seen in the…

Will both infrastructure plans actually be enacted? The bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, a $1.2 trillion plan, focuses on traditional infrastructure such and roads and bridges, ports and waterways, and now includes cybersecurity and broadband. The $3.5 trillion Build Back…

Several clients asked about our overweight healthcare position and they wondered if it isn’t time to take profits. They noted that the Delta variant infection rate was peaking and that some folks believe we have reached “herd immunity.”