As we enter 2022, and as we are about to start the “earnings season” with reports of the Q4 and full year of 2021, we also continue to examine the “statistical discrepancy” between the estimates of GDP (gross domestic product) and GDI (gross domestic income).

“To grandmother’s house we go,” says the song. In the US, airports bustled (when flights not canceled) over the holidays. Families gathered. Some heeded the Omicron warning, some not. ’Twas the season. Now we are watching Omicron cases surge.  

The Treasury curve flattened during the fourth quarter of 2021, with short-term Treasury yields rising precipitously while longer Treasury yields were slightly lower.

Readers have asked us about boosters.   We know that the mRNA COVID vaccine boosters help reduce the severity of disease caused by Omicron and Delta and other variants, known or unknown. The boosters don’t keep us from infection, but they do keep most people who have received…

With the end of the year in sight, there are several themes in play for bonds.

Many of our readers are familiar with the work of Bob Bunting, CEO of the Climate Adaptation Center, who has warned us of the growing impacts of climate change on everything from hurricanes to red tide to wildfires and drought. In his guest commentary today, Bob leads us into a deeper…

Holiday Wishes from John Mousseau...  

My friend Philippa Dunne of TLR Analytics has weighed in on our discussion of the statistical discrepancy in corporate profits, focusing on the GDP side of the issue. Her commentary is below. We thank her for permission to share this effort by Philippa and Doug Henwood.

The global economy is ending a year of strong recovery, with real GDP growth estimated at 5.7%, following the sharp 3.5% decline in 2020. The recovery was fueled by massive emergency fiscal support by governments, together with very easy monetary policy by most central banks, keeping interest…

A remarkable stock market in a remarkable year closes 2021 with a remarkable quarter. Our quant work gave a rare three-times signal of extreme fear. As this is written (December 20), all quant accounts are fully invested.