We have written recently about the jobs situation in the United States. See “Jobs, Wages, the Outlook?” https://www.cumber.com/market-commentary/jobs-wages-outlook. We expect the employment picture to worsen, which means continuing upward pressure on wages and continuing shortages of labor…

Readers have been asking about our view of the economic recovery and the labor force. We are receiving mixed signals from economic data, and the bottom-line answer is uncertain. Let’s get to details and some suggested readings and end with my personal view.

A number of readers have asked us about the Mu variant of COVID, and we’ve had several recent conference calls and Zoom meetings on the subject. Those conversations have actually focused on two variants, Mu and R.1. So far, neither variant has posed as serious a threat as Delta has.

The increase in Delta infections put a damper on the return to normalcy in the third quarter. Areas that had seen an increase in economic activity, including transit systems and air travel, saw reductions.

Nearly all the world and certainly all the major economies in the developed countries are taking their interest rate trends flat to higher. While they are moving individually and each of them is focused on domestic economic data, they are still a group acting in concert; and that is the concern…

The latest indicators reflect a quickening pace in the Korean economy, which is headed for a healthy 4+% advance this year. Yet the Korea Composite Stock Price Index, KOSPI, declined 8.13% in the three months ending October 8th. The main US-listed Korean ETF, the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF,…

US Stock Market: Point and Counterpoint

I hope you can come to the Climate Adaptation Center (CAC) Florida Climate Forecast Conference at the University of South Florida’s Selby Auditorium on November 19.   Please forward this message and link to anyone who might be interested. https://www.theclimateadaptationcenter.org…

Once again, the BLS CES jobs report failed to meet expectations, with nonfarm employment increasing only 194,000, continuing a steady decline from July’s increase of 1,091,000 jobs and August’s increase of only 366,000. To be sure, the unemployment rate declined from 5.2% to 4.8%, but there are…

The inflation hawks cite numerous price indices or monetary policy or rising wages to argue their case. The counterpoint is usually that all this inflation is a result of COVID shock effects, and therefore it is “transitory.” Some argue that the deflationary forces which persisted for years will…