In a commentary last week entitled “Jobs and Prices” (https://www.cumber.com/market-commentary/jobs-and-prices), some estimates were provided as to what we might expect the August CPI number to look

The dream of every fisherman is to fish in a wild stream — to be the first person in years to cast at completely wild fish. In a world of nearly eight billion people, such places are very difficult to find. 

After underperforming earlier in the year, Japanese equities started rising in late August and should maintain strong momentum in the coming months. Over the past month through September 14, the Nikkei 225 Index gained 9.1%, and the iShares MSCI Japan ETF, EWJ, was up 7.8%.

“Used car prices fell by -1.5% in August, after a 0.2% July rise, and massive increases over the prior three months of 10.5% in June, 7.3% in May, and 10.0% in April. New car prices rose by 1.2% in August, after solid gains of 1.7% in July, 2.0% in June, 1.6% in May, and 0.5%…

The August 12, 2021, UCSF Department of Medicine COVID-19 Grand Rounds presentation, titled "The Fourth Surge, Delta Variant, Vaccines, Boosters, and More," covers a broad range of COVID-related questions for which we are all eager to have answers. I came away more deeply informed and with…

The FOMC will be meeting later this month, on Sept 21–22, and will be faced with what appears to be mixed evidence on progress towards its employment and inflation objectives. New claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending September 4 were down to 310,000, and have showed continued…

At our Leen’s Lodge gathering, four of us spent a moment of reflection on our escape from the 9/11 WTC towers and their collapse We had some quiet conversations with some of the others in the group.   Some things are still vivid for me. For example, I can close my eyes and still see the…

When I mentioned to a neighbor who collects rare books that I was drafting a commentary about the evolution of policy in China today and going forward, my neighbor brought me this little book to peruse:  

The recovery of the European economies in the first eight months of this year from the pandemic-induced recession has been impressive, despite the headwinds stirred by a resurgence of COVID-19, particularly its Delta variant, and severe material shortages and transport bottlenecks.

Once again, the latest release of the Employment Situation by BLS, which indicated that only 235,000 jobs were created in August, has demonstrated how difficult forecasting is. For example, the Dow Jones survey of economists predicted that 720,000 jobs were created, a forecast that turned out to…